Picking up steam, Irene, the first hurricane of 2011, looks headed for major storm status — and for Florida and the Carolinas. Irene is still passing through the Caribbean and will soon start curving to the north. Irene is forecast to make landfall in the US near Wilmington, NC Saturday evening. However, it is important to note that this is not a definitive forecast, the average forecast error for day 5 is 250 miles. The timing of Irene’s recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the mid-Atlantic coastline and locations further north, but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions. NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours, then reaching peak intensity at 130 mph (Category 4 storm) by 8pm EDT Thursday evening. This could become one of the strongest hurricanes to reach landfall in the Carolinas. With that said, this storm will definitely be something to keep a sharp eye on. We will continue to monitor this system and give you updates on the surf as we near the weekend.